Draw odds

This is a chance-based product. Purchase or participation does not guarantee any specific item.

Catalog version

2.1.1-environmental-hazards-hand-200 (26 cards)

Published

2026-10-25

Guaranteed acquisition

None. Draws are independent; a previous result does not affect the next draw.

Limited quantities

None. Card issuance is unlimited and does not decrease when another viewer draws.

Calamities

The catalog contains 8 calamity cards. The probability of a calamity is 20.00% per draw.

Source data

Download catalog JSON. Tables on this page are generated from this file.

1. Type and rarity probabilities

First choose blessing (80.00%) or calamity (20.00%), then rarity with weights Common 60%, Rare 25%, Epic 12%, Legendary 3%, then select uniformly within that group. When both types have all four rarities, the baseline probabilities are:

Calamities such as floods, droughts, wolves and earthquakes create finite local environmental hazards; effects develop over simulation time according to actual location, exposure, clothing, shelter and body condition. Death and extinction are possible. Cards open according to the world's actual civilization stage. Missing types or rarities redistribute their share proportionally among the remaining groups; total probability remains 100%.

2. Pools at each civilization stage

These are baseline pools with all card conditions satisfied. Stage follows abilities actually held by living residents; one stage applies at a time. A card's probability equals its type-and-rarity group share divided by the number of cards in that group.

Hunter-gatherer

Blessing 80.00%, Calamity 20.00%; Common 60.00%, Rare 25.00%, Epic 12.00%, Legendary 3.00%. 23 cards.

Card	Type	Rarity	Effect	Conditions	Draw probability
Foraging Abundance	Blessing	Common	Wild food on the most depleted area regrows faster for 20 days (+2% of capacity per day, never above capacity).	Hunter-gatherer stage; reachable land with room for wild food. Lower stocks are preferred.	8.00%
Spring Rains	Blessing	Common	Refills the driest area's water by 35% of its capacity, capped at capacity.	Reachable land with room for water. Drier areas are preferred.	8.00%
Driftwood Shore	Blessing	Common	12 units of wood wash up beside the camp.	A reachable riverbank. Existing camp wood does not block use.	8.00%
Herd Sighting	Blessing	Common	Game returns to the most hunted area: +30% of its wildlife capacity, capped.	Reachable habitat with room for arriving animals. Lower stocks are preferred.	8.00%
Calm Days	Blessing	Common	The resident in the poorest health recovers up to 12 health points.	A living resident below full health; the least healthy is preferred.	8.00%
Fiber Meadow	Blessing	Common	Fiber plants spread on the most stripped grass or woodland: +5% of capacity.	Reachable grassland or woodland with room for fiber.	8.00%
Spark of Curiosity	Blessing	Rare	Ends one curious resident's waiting time before the next experiment and adds +0.10 curiosity for 60 days. Success is not guaranteed.	An adult with fewer than 4 techniques who is still waiting between experiments.	5.00%
Flint Outcrop	Blessing	Rare	A new flint face is exposed in the most quarried area: +10% of its flint capacity.	Reachable land with remaining flint capacity.	5.00%
Clay Bank Exposed	Blessing	Rare	A flood exposes clay on the riverbank: +10% of its clay capacity.	A reachable riverbank with remaining clay capacity.	5.00%
Gathering Circle	Blessing	Rare	Adults lean toward cooperation (+0.08) for 30 days.	A built hearth, at least 6 residents, and an adult whose cooperation can increase.	5.00%
Gentle Season	Blessing	Epic	Wild food regrows faster everywhere for 45 days (+1.5% of capacity per day, capped).	Hunter-gatherer stage; reachable land with room for wild food.	3.20%
Windfall Timber	Blessing	Epic	A storm drops timber near camp: +20 wood and +4 fiber for shelters.	An inhabited camp. Existing wood or fiber does not block use.	3.20%
Night Sky Stories	Blessing	Epic	Stories by the fire make adults more curious (+0.12) for 60 days. No knowledge is granted.	A built hearth and an adult whose curiosity can increase.	3.20%
Great Herd Migration	Blessing	Legendary	Herds pass through every area for 60 days (+5% of wildlife capacity per day, capped).	Reachable habitat with room for whole arriving animals.	1.20%
Comet Over the River	Blessing	Legendary	A comet crosses the sky. The sponsor's name is recorded in the world chronicle; no resources change.	A living population.	1.20%
Wolves at the Edge of Camp	Calamity	Common	Nearby real wolves become a local threat for 7 world days; distance, fire, cover and bodily condition affect attacks. Death is possible.	Existing wolves near the selected camp.	4.00%
Cold Snap	Calamity	Common	A local cold spell lasts 14 world days. Actual clothing, shelter, wetness and bodily reserves change exposure harm; death is possible.	An inhabited camp; no minimum survivor count.	4.00%
The Herds Move On	Calamity	Common	Animals gradually leave the affected area over 21 world days. Only existing animals depart, with a conserved population ledger.	Existing local animals.	4.00%
Drought	Calamity	Rare	Local water and vegetation dry over 30 world days. Exposed stores and water sources shrink; deprivation can cause death.	An inhabited camp with reachable land.	2.50%
Fever Outbreak	Calamity	Rare	An infectious exposure lasts 14 world days. Infection can spread through close contact, with a saved illness course and possible death.	An inhabited camp; cold alone does not cause infection.	2.50%
River Flood	Calamity	Epic	Nearby low ground floods for 7 world days. Depth, current, swimming skill, wetness and bodily condition affect injury and drowning.	A nearby river or lake.	1.20%
Wildfire	Calamity	Epic	A local fire lasts 10 world days. Existing fuel burns, wildlife flees, and exposed residents and stores can be harmed. Death is possible.	Nearby woodland with existing wood fuel.	1.20%
Earthquake	Calamity	Legendary	Shaking and aftershocks last 3 world days. Location, terrain, actual shelter and bodily condition determine losses and possible deaths.	An inhabited camp; even one resident may be affected.	0.60%
Total					100.00%

Early cultivation

Blessing 80.00%, Calamity 20.00%; Common 12.00%, Rare 85.00%, Epic 2.40%, Legendary 0.60%. 9 cards.

Card	Type	Rarity	Effect	Conditions	Draw probability
Fertile Ground	Blessing	Rare	Improves conditions for existing planting experiments.	Early cultivation capability and reachable land with room for food.	80.00%
Wolves at the Edge of Camp	Calamity	Common	Nearby real wolves become a local threat for 7 world days; distance, fire, cover and bodily condition affect attacks. Death is possible.	Existing wolves near the selected camp.	4.00%
Cold Snap	Calamity	Common	A local cold spell lasts 14 world days. Actual clothing, shelter, wetness and bodily reserves change exposure harm; death is possible.	An inhabited camp; no minimum survivor count.	4.00%
The Herds Move On	Calamity	Common	Animals gradually leave the affected area over 21 world days. Only existing animals depart, with a conserved population ledger.	Existing local animals.	4.00%
Drought	Calamity	Rare	Local water and vegetation dry over 30 world days. Exposed stores and water sources shrink; deprivation can cause death.	An inhabited camp with reachable land.	2.50%
Fever Outbreak	Calamity	Rare	An infectious exposure lasts 14 world days. Infection can spread through close contact, with a saved illness course and possible death.	An inhabited camp; cold alone does not cause infection.	2.50%
River Flood	Calamity	Epic	Nearby low ground floods for 7 world days. Depth, current, swimming skill, wetness and bodily condition affect injury and drowning.	A nearby river or lake.	1.20%
Wildfire	Calamity	Epic	A local fire lasts 10 world days. Existing fuel burns, wildlife flees, and exposed residents and stores can be harmed. Death is possible.	Nearby woodland with existing wood fuel.	1.20%
Earthquake	Calamity	Legendary	Shaking and aftershocks last 3 world days. Location, terrain, actual shelter and bodily condition determine losses and possible deaths.	An inhabited camp; even one resident may be affected.	0.60%
Total					100.00%

Agriculture

Blessing 80.00%, Calamity 20.00%; Common 12.00%, Rare 5.00%, Epic 82.40%, Legendary 0.60%. 9 cards.

Card	Type	Rarity	Effect	Conditions	Draw probability
Bountiful Harvest	Blessing	Epic	Raises the yield of existing fields.	Agriculture capability and reachable land with room for food.	80.00%
Wolves at the Edge of Camp	Calamity	Common	Nearby real wolves become a local threat for 7 world days; distance, fire, cover and bodily condition affect attacks. Death is possible.	Existing wolves near the selected camp.	4.00%
Cold Snap	Calamity	Common	A local cold spell lasts 14 world days. Actual clothing, shelter, wetness and bodily reserves change exposure harm; death is possible.	An inhabited camp; no minimum survivor count.	4.00%
The Herds Move On	Calamity	Common	Animals gradually leave the affected area over 21 world days. Only existing animals depart, with a conserved population ledger.	Existing local animals.	4.00%
Drought	Calamity	Rare	Local water and vegetation dry over 30 world days. Exposed stores and water sources shrink; deprivation can cause death.	An inhabited camp with reachable land.	2.50%
Fever Outbreak	Calamity	Rare	An infectious exposure lasts 14 world days. Infection can spread through close contact, with a saved illness course and possible death.	An inhabited camp; cold alone does not cause infection.	2.50%
River Flood	Calamity	Epic	Nearby low ground floods for 7 world days. Depth, current, swimming skill, wetness and bodily condition affect injury and drowning.	A nearby river or lake.	1.20%
Wildfire	Calamity	Epic	A local fire lasts 10 world days. Existing fuel burns, wildlife flees, and exposed residents and stores can be harmed. Death is possible.	Nearby woodland with existing wood fuel.	1.20%
Earthquake	Calamity	Legendary	Shaking and aftershocks last 3 world days. Location, terrain, actual shelter and bodily condition determine losses and possible deaths.	An inhabited camp; even one resident may be affected.	0.60%
Total					100.00%

Industrial agriculture

Blessing 80.00%, Calamity 20.00%; Common 12.00%, Rare 5.00%, Epic 2.40%, Legendary 80.60%. 9 cards.

Card	Type	Rarity	Effect	Conditions	Draw probability
Agricultural Innovation	Blessing	Legendary	Funds conditions for machinery and breeding experiments.	Industrial-agriculture capability and an adult whose curiosity can increase.	80.00%
Wolves at the Edge of Camp	Calamity	Common	Nearby real wolves become a local threat for 7 world days; distance, fire, cover and bodily condition affect attacks. Death is possible.	Existing wolves near the selected camp.	4.00%
Cold Snap	Calamity	Common	A local cold spell lasts 14 world days. Actual clothing, shelter, wetness and bodily reserves change exposure harm; death is possible.	An inhabited camp; no minimum survivor count.	4.00%
The Herds Move On	Calamity	Common	Animals gradually leave the affected area over 21 world days. Only existing animals depart, with a conserved population ledger.	Existing local animals.	4.00%
Drought	Calamity	Rare	Local water and vegetation dry over 30 world days. Exposed stores and water sources shrink; deprivation can cause death.	An inhabited camp with reachable land.	2.50%
Fever Outbreak	Calamity	Rare	An infectious exposure lasts 14 world days. Infection can spread through close contact, with a saved illness course and possible death.	An inhabited camp; cold alone does not cause infection.	2.50%
River Flood	Calamity	Epic	Nearby low ground floods for 7 world days. Depth, current, swimming skill, wetness and bodily condition affect injury and drowning.	A nearby river or lake.	1.20%
Wildfire	Calamity	Epic	A local fire lasts 10 world days. Existing fuel burns, wildlife flees, and exposed residents and stores can be harmed. Death is possible.	Nearby woodland with existing wood fuel.	1.20%
Earthquake	Calamity	Legendary	Shaking and aftershocks last 3 world days. Location, terrain, actual shelter and bodily condition determine losses and possible deaths.	An inhabited camp; even one resident may be affected.	0.60%
Total					100.00%

3. Conditions, changing pools and your hand

Some cards also require world conditions, such as available resource capacity or suitable riverbank terrain, and have anti-stacking limits. Cards without any legal settlement target are excluded, so the actual pool can be smaller.

1. Review the actual pool first. The draw page lists the current cards and probabilities before confirmation.
2. Published group shares stay fixed. If world conditions change before rolling and some cards become unavailable, other cards in the same type-and-rarity group share that group's probability equally.
3. A missing whole group cancels the draw. No card is drawn and no points are charged. Review the updated pool before retrying.
4. No rerolls or replacements. Results follow the disclosed probabilities and are not changed based on effect strength.

Hand rules

1. Cards enter your hand first. They do not apply automatically. Choose when and which settlement to play at; the simulation chooses the exact tile or resident.
2. Capacity: 200 cards. A full hand blocks new draws before charging. Play or discard to make space. Discards are not refunded.
3. Rejected plays keep the card. Stage, world conditions, stacking, calamity cooldown and broadcast queue are checked on play. Invalid cards remain in your hand, with a reason and retry time. Each player may play at most one card every 60 seconds.
4. Cards expire after 7 real days. Unplayed cards are then removed; expiry records remain. A completed draw is not refunded on expiry. Remaining time is shown on each card.
5. Calamity limits. Further calamity cards targeting the same settlement are rate-limited for at least 10 real minutes and 30 simulation days after a calamity; the site-wide maximum is 4 calamities per hour. Sponsor, target and consequences are recorded in world history.

Played cards apply immediately to the simulated world. Broadcast presentation is queued. Estimated broadcast times may be delayed by major events.

4. Records and probability changes

• Orders, pool content, catalog version, random values and results are retained server-side until at least 180 days after the activity ends, for verification and consumer disputes. Email us to request your records.
• Changes to cards or odds are announced in advance with a new catalog version. Submitted draws use the version in force when submitted.
• The server generates random results. The browser cannot select a card or rarity.

Questions about probabilities? Email hero870802@gmail.com.